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  • Macaca
    02-01 08:17 PM
    House Democrats Trim Agenda (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/31/AR2008013103857.html) Realities of a Slim Majority and Poor Economy Curb Their Ambition By Ben Pershing | washingtonpost.com, Feb 1

    WILLIAMSBURG, Jan. 31 -- A year ago, newly empowered House Democrats gathered here at the Kingsmill Resort for their annual retreat brimming with confidence. Before them was an ambitious legislative agenda and a determination to end or curtail the U.S. troop presence in Iraq.

    This time around, the hotel and golf courses are the same, but the song is markedly different. Gone is the talk of forcing President Bush to end the war, as is the impetus to pass a comprehensive immigration package and to stick to strict budget rules. Instead, Democrats are thinking smaller, much smaller.

    They hope to leave today with the beginnings of a scaled-down plan to pass a handful of bills in the House -- even if they cannot get through the Senate -- and build a case for November that Democrats have been productive enough to warrant at least another two years in the majority.

    "The agenda is, to some degree, a completion of the agenda that we started last year, as is usually the case in the second year of the Congress," said House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.).

    Presidential election years are traditionally slow on the legislative front, and Democrats have a narrow majority in the Senate. Even in the House, the 290 votes the majority needs to overcome any Bush veto usually are not there.

    Democrats may take their cue from the modest proposals in Bush's State of the Union address this week, which Hoyer called "thin."

    But that does not mean the party's to-do list is blank.

    Democrats need to pass a budget. They want to pass another energy bill. They would like to pump money into the Highway Trust Fund for road projects. They may reauthorize the No Child Left Behind education law. They have to push through appropriations bills.

    Democrats also have not given up on Iraq, though they do appear to be moving away from their so-far-unsuccessful strategy of tying troop withdrawal language to money for the war. Based on the comments of leaders here, any Iraq timeline language that moves this year will probably move separately from funding bills.

    And while Iraq was a huge topic of discussion at the 2007 retreat, the economy is the theme this time around. "That's what this conference is about, a four-letter word: J-O-B-S," said House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.).

    The House is waiting to see what the Senate does with the stimulus plan it passed this week, and a second package could be on the way soon.

    Of the House-passed stimulus bill, Hoyer said, "Our effort was not the perfect, but it was the possible, and that's what we're going to be focused on."

    The same could be said of the party's broader agenda.

    Technically, Democrats do not call this gathering a "retreat." It is an "issues conference." But the mood is not entirely serious.

    Emanuel loosened up the crowd at Wednesday night's dinner by showing a popular YouTube video -- "My kids found it," he explained -- of a teenage boy sitting in his room lip-synching a Will Ferrell impersonation of Bush. The assembled lawmakers roared along with the video.

    The attire is also decidedly casual. Some members are strolling around in jeans; others have gone for the menswear-ad blazer-and-khakis combination. A colorful array of sweaters has been on display; House Majority Whip James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.) met with reporters wearing a blue pullover emblazoned with "South Carolina. Smiling Faces. Beautiful Places."

    While Kingsmill offers a wide variety of spa treatments and "wellness" services, members here have a full schedule of panel sessions on weighty policy topics. They heard governors talk about state budgets and chief executives address the environment and infrastructure. A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is the main event Friday.

    Clyburn, an avid golfer, lamented that he has been coming to Kingsmill for a decade for official functions but has never had the chance to hit the links -- often because of bad weather -- despite the presence here of four separate courses designed by such golf luminaries as Arnold Palmer and Curtis Strange.

    But Clyburn said he is determined to get out on the greens today. Right after that Bernanke speech.





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  • psvk
    08-05 06:02 PM
    We always hear "the rules" from the female side. Now here are the rules from the male side. These are our rules! Print this out and pass to your partner for a greater understanding:
    .

    Could not stop laughing on most of them. Thanks to all.

    Most of them on the same topic. Hope you guys not having FUN(!) at home :D:D





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  • Legal
    07-10 09:54 AM
    ;)
    Actually this "slavery" terminology is good for us, we can strategically use this to promote legislation like SKIL among anti-immigrationists and Congressmen/ senators.

    ELIMINATING GC BACKLOGS WOULD END THIS SLAVERY....

    LEGAL IMMIGRANTS GETTING GC IN DUE TIME WOULD REDUCE H1 B SLAVERY





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  • sanju
    12-18 01:09 PM
    the main message of the bible is forgiveness

    And what do bible say about people who do not believe in bible. How can the creator who created everything, including "believers" of your faith, and "non-believers" of your faith, how can such a creator who knows nothing but giving, how can that fellow say - "non-believers" go to hell. Don't you think that was purposefully put in there by Saint Paul, or someone who showed up after him. That shallow view cannot be coming from a supereme being, its just not possible.


    and the sacrifice that God made in order to save mankind. the person the bible portrays is the man who wanted to sacrifice his life for all of us. history proves that to be true. I don't think any king would want to change that message.
    God hates evil, and both God and evil cannot exist together. Man is doomed to eternal death because of sin. but God loved us that none of us should perish, and that's how he gave us a way to escape death (not mortal). that is through the great sacrifice He made for mankind.

    Book of Romans 5:8
    "But God demonstrates His own love toward us, in that while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us."

    Your version of history and the way you have been tought histroy proves that to be true. And just like the other fellow who said that books of hindu religion is not doctored, you come up with reasons who books or your faith are not doctored, which is not surprising. Why is it called "King James Bible" if King James did not create his won version? Why are there so many versions of bibles qurans, Geetas? Which version of each of those books is correct? Let me guess, the answer is, the one that I believe, or the one that was handed to me by my parents. And thats just too much bull, you know....

    Some of the parts of each holy book emanates view of supreme being, but then there are others which preach hate. All that I am saying is, be critical when you read yuor book, and question everything that it has to tell you. Don't live in medival period and follow these books blindly, you are an educated man, for christ sake. Even Christ or Allah or Krishna or whomever you beleiev in, even they will not want you to follow a twisted belief system in their name, would they? Just think.... So why is it not your responsibility to critically think about that is being taught in those books is not some form of hate in the name of religion.

    First thing that all religions do is, tell you that you r are a sinner, because just like George Bush, every religion works on the principle of fear. No. I was not born as a sinner, no one was. Everyone else is an extraordinary creation of creator created out of love and giving. And anyone telling you that we are sinner is simply abhomination of the creation of the creator.

    Say you are a computer programmer. The question is - Why are you a computer programmer? Because you applied your mind to become a computer programmer, and thats why you are now called - computer programmer. Now say you worship the true nature of GOD, which is not but love, none of this sinner and kafir stuff, ok. Now you apply your mind towards God, what will you become, and reflection of god itself. And during a period of time people will identify you with the object to which you applied your mind. I believe Jesus, Buddha, Krishna, Mohammad, Guru Nanak, were great visionary souls and applied their mind to GOD such that their coming generations identify them as GODs, just as I applied my mind to become a computer programmer and now I am identified as computer program. This applies to every so called "GOD" in every religion.

    Ray of light from Sun is a medium for light & warmth, but no one prays the ray of light, everyone prays the Sun becuase thats the source. Likewise, all the great souls who showed up from time to time, they are like rays of Sun light, showing us the direction to the Sun, but in this metaphor, mankind started praying the ray of sun light instead of the Sun and formed all those different religions based on the ray of sunlight. And now everyone fights with each other over whose ray of sunlight is better. Just imagine how ignorant and foolish this behavior is?

    I don't think that every word of bible is the word of Jesus Christ. I don;t think that every word of Quran is the word of Mohammed. I don't thin that every word of Geeta is the word of Krishna. If there was a way for these great souls to appear before us in this age and talk to people who "appear" to follow them, these great souls will tell their so called "followers" to stop this nonsense in their name.


    .



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  • nojoke
    04-14 04:15 PM
    Exactly. now before you jump ..let me say that this may not be applicable to you. but most of the people that I know of, who have very young kids ( 1 - 5/6 year olds) ..buying a house was a wrong decision. (and common sense says the same thing). Because they bought the house - either they had to slog extra or take up 2 jobs and/or spouse has to work. some of them had a baby sitter ..who would put the kid in front of the TV all day. some of the kids are/were at home all day with their mother (but no friends) and hence they were lonely. (wife does not know how to drive or only one car) ..some of the luckier ones were the ones who could afford to put them in all day daycare
    (but in this case ..kid hardly knows his parents well).
    in my humble opinion ..the best case is where a mother takes care of the son as long as possible and at the same time the kid plays with other kids of same age ..(there are definitely many exceptions) ...and most (neutral) people would say that those who rent would be more likely to have this best case.

    Exactly. This argument of buying house for kids is no argument. You can argue on either side. The problem is when NKR made a statement that it is big deal to not buy a house because your kid will ask "can you give back my childhood?". As if a 7 year old will regret not owning a house. The child will regret not owning a playstation3, eat chocalates all the time, play all time. We all know what we wanted when we were kids.;)





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  • unitednations
    03-24 02:39 PM
    UN - why do you think USCIS allows

    (1) File for h1b from consulting company - when they think there is an issue
    (2) Allow labor substitution - when they think it is not good
    (3) Allow eb3 to eb2 porting - when they think it is not good
    ....
    ....
    ....

    the list can go on

    Why do you think people who are following law - not liked by USCIS?

    I am not blaming USCIS or not poking at them or your interpretation.

    I personally see that if you are not properly represented either by company or my a good Attorney - you are bound to have issues.

    Right now USCIS is giving everyone a hard time.

    I didn't even think that getting rid of labor substitution was a good thing. Much of the issues related to labor substgitution had to do with IT jobs. Although IT jobs take up a good number of greencards; it impacted other companies/people who weren't doing anything wrong with it. It was a first step in making eb harder.

    I am a pretty good advocate of the staffing companies. Kill staffing companies and h-1b and employment base greencard is finished for people from india. I don't think many people realize the implications of what is going on. Staffing companies are the lifeline for employment base IT and for nurses. Thre would be no more retrogressoin as people wouldn't be able to come here. All the people who are here in so called permanent jobs will also eventually get squeezed (laid off; company mergers; promotions; more rules like tarp, etc., and they will eventually also stop doing greencards except for the most senior of senior people).

    People really need to be careful right now.



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  • Beemar
    12-26 11:31 PM
    Pakistan's nukes' user manuals are in Chinese language. How will they know how to fire them?


    BUNCH OF IDIOTS WAKE UP. PAKISTAN IS A NUCLEAR STATE.
    WAR IS NO SOLUTION TO ANY PROBLEM.





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  • jung.lee
    04-06 04:54 PM
    :p

    I had no idea my two humble posts would stir up such a hornets' nest among the desi junta here. I certainly see more "bears" coming out of their hibernation now that spring is here :).

    OK, I admit that I am also in the camp that really wants to buy a house and "settle down" in a good area with good schools for my kids. The mythical "nesting instinct" is alive and well here. I am obsessed with the real estate market, and am constantly watching real estate porn as my wife calls it, i.e., surfing on ziprealty.com and redfin.com trying to spot good deals.

    However, the reality is that I am scared sh*tless of the market right now. I do not want to burn my hard earned equity in the form of a good 20% plus downpayment. If you are in the same situation as I am, then I would offer the following practical suggestions to help you cope with the situation:

    1. Rent a house/townhouse/condo from private parties instead of an apartment complex to help you understand the responsibilities and expenses of homeownership.

    2. If renting an apartment in an area with moderate schools, and have school age kids, instead of trying to chase the dream of building equity in a house in an area with good public schools, in the short run, consider sending your kids to a decent private school. The cost of added property taxes in case of home purchase would alone balance out the high monthly payments of private schooling, with probably better "return on investment" at a private school.

    3. Feel good about renting an apartment: You should not succumb to peer pressure and try to keep up with the Janardhan's (OK, bad joke, "Joneses") and buy a house just because other people took the plunge at the wrong time. Your time will come. Just be patient. Not to be taken lightly is the fact that in the month of April we celebrate Earth Day - think positively about all the energy you are saving living in an apartment with shared utilities with other people living in the complex. A house is a big energy guzzler (although I am sure an enjoyable one!) in all respects - more heating and cooling costs, more water used (esp. in summer with lawn watering), more greenhouse gas emissions from your individual lawn mower, leaf blower, and snow blower (can you picture yourself mowing your lawn or riding the snow blower in your lungi :D- OK this joke is getting old)...

    4. More quality time spent at home with the kids - when you are not having to do chores around a big house. A house seems to take up a lot of maintenance time, not to mention time spent cleaning/vacuuming /dusting the entire 3000 sq ft area and otherwise maintaining the 1/4 acre yard. You could instead spend a lot of quality time with your kids doing projects/homework/art work with them and being a kid again yourself. In a house it is more likely that unless you have kids big enough to help you do those chores for some incentive, your kids will be watching Dora and Diego while you are cleaning up.

    All in all, I think there are many positives to look forward to while you save money renting, and like I said before, when the time is nigh, you will have your turn. You will also by then, hopefully have your green cards in hand and may even be able to move to a more desirable city or other states looking for better work opportunities and where your downpayment savings will take you farther in getting you more for your buck.

    Cheers!



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  • bondgoli007
    01-06 04:09 PM
    Didn't Narendra Modi followed the footstep of Isreali counterparts by killing innocents in Gujarat?

    Its upto Indians to decide which type of leaders we need. Like Gandhi or Modi.
    Once again you choose to antagonize the very people you are trying to protest along with... If you treat us like enemies then why even post so much on this thread?

    Most of the folks here who lost their cool and abused you were provoked by you...Same is the case even in the real world. If you choose not to acknowledge that then my friend, how can you ever hope and pray for peace and friendship?





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  • desi3933
    08-05 10:22 AM
    If you find enough people and have solid plan in place, I am willing to pay anywhere between $500 to $1000 towards the lawyer's fees....

    Just self-interest and what works for them.

    Factions and Groups
    eb2 vs eb3
    Porting vs Non-Porting

    some recent ones
    eb2 NSC vs eb2 TSC
    eb2 PD 2006 vs eb2 PD 2004 (as many 2006 PD are getting 485 approvals)

    No wonder many people, after getting GC, do not visit this forum and support any immigration reforms.

    --------------------------
    Whatever we treasure for ourselves separates us from others; our possessions are our limitations.
    -- Rabindranath Tagore (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabindranath_Tagore) (Indian Poet and Nobel Prize winner for Literature in 1913)


    ____________________________
    US Permanent Resident since 2002
    ** supports not counting dependents for EB Green cards **



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  • unseenguy
    06-07 09:47 PM
    For me its a very simple thing, print that damn thing of plastic and I will buy. I have kept my down payment safe aside in CDs. If not, I am sending some chunk of yearly saving back to India, making it harder for me to live and settle here. :) No plastic, no investment.





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  • Macaca
    04-17 08:40 AM
    To Conceal Donors, Some Political Groups Look to the Tax Code (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/16/AR2007041601352.html), By Jeffrey H. Birnbaum, Tuesday, April 17, 2007

    An increasing number of organizations working to influence elections also are working to hide who is paying for their activities.

    Several political organizations colloquially known as 527s are relying more on or switching into 501(c)(4) groups, the type of tax-exempt entity that the tax code uses for advocacy groups.

    The 527s must disclose who gives them money; 501(c)(4)s do not have that requirement.

    The trend, which was discovered by the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute, runs counter to one of the basic tenets of modern-day election law -- broad public disclosure. Voters generally have the right to know who is helping to elect their representatives and senators. Armed with such data, they can decide for themselves who, if anyone, is trying to buy their congressional representatives.

    A lot of political influence is at stake if such transformations proliferate. In last year's elections, 527s spent $143.2 million. The biggest outlays on the Democratic side came from the Service Employees International Union, Emily's List and America Votes, a coalition of liberal groups. On the Republican side, the big spenders were the Progress for America Voter Fund, the College Republican National Committee and the Presidential Coalition.

    There are many reasons that 527s might want to alter their stripes. The main one has nothing to do with concealment: The Federal Election Commission has been cracking down on 527s, insisting they cannot explicitly press for the election or the defeat of candidates.

    But in trying to sidestep the crackdown, several 527s have chosen an alternative structure that is harder for the public to track. Tax-exempt groups of various types have always been able to keep their donors anonymous (except to the Internal Revenue Service). The exception to this, made in 2000, is the type of electioneering funds called 527s, which have to publicly name their contributors.

    In recent years, one group that has leaned more heavily on its 501(c)(4) is Progress for America, once one of the largest GOP-leaning 527s. Another group is converting outright: the Club for Growth, which supports conservative, anti-tax candidates. According to a letter obtained by the Campaign Finance Institute, the club sees many benefits in its transformation, including secrecy. "Unlike in the past, your donations to the Club will not be disclosed to the public, except in very limited circumstances," wrote Patrick J. Toomey, the group's president.

    Some experts doubt that the Club for Growth will be widely imitated. An organization cannot simply change its label to a 501(c); it must also alter its function so that it no longer primarily works on elections. Last week, Public Citizen, the liberal gadfly, formally complained that Americans for Job Security should not be allowed to operate as a 501(c)(6), or trade association, because of its large-scale electoral involvement.

    Veil of Secrecy
    A sample of entities involved in politics that operate as 501(c), (4), (5) or (6) groups, which are tax-exempt and do not have to disclose their donors publicly.

    Organization and Examples of 2006 political activity

    AFL-CIO Spent about $40 million on its pro-Democratic political program.
    Americans for Job Security Ran an estimated $1.5 million in ads on behalf of then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.).
    Chamber of Commerce Spent $10 million on ads thanking largely GOP incumbents for pro-business positions.
    Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund Spent $1.6 million on election-related activity, including voter education and mobilization.
    Focus on Family Action Sponsored radio ads in several competitive Senate races.
    League of Conservation Voters Spent more than $1 million on TV ads, mailings and other political outreach.
    NARAL Spent more than $740,000, mostly to rent voter lists for Internet communications.
    National Rifle Association Campaign war chest (excluding PAC funds) was reportedly $9 million.

    SOURCE: Campaign Finance Instititue



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  • senthil1
    04-08 07:28 PM
    Finally anti immigrants will make the immigrants to fight to keep atleast whatever they have it now. If we want EB reform we may have to accept some H1b restrictions. Otherwise get ready for status quo and wait years and years to get gc with same H1b mess as this year. If you ask liberal H1b and liberal GC then you may not get anything. I will be surprised if Strive bill passes without meaningfull H1b reform. The situation is completely different from 1999 or 2000. If they bring multiple anti immigrant bills then everything may be dropped. Best way is to introduce that 50% of hires should be US workers. That will be best bet and that will not have any impact on current H1b holders


    Hi pitha,

    Thanks for posting this info. Could you please share the source of this information?

    None of us should take this bill lightly. There is a saying - "one should never watch sausage or law being made". The guys who vote on the bills, in most instances, don't actually know what they are voting on. Most lawmakers may vote in favor of this bill as the anti-lobby is warpping this bill around a message "this bill is to enhance protections for American workers, so are you going to vote against American workers?" As such most lawmakers could vote in favor of this bill. The current environment is very dangerous where most people watch news in the sound-bites and half of the Senate is running for President. In such an environment, if you ask Obama, Hilary, Dodd, McCain etc., they are all likely to vote in favor of this bill, without going into the nuances and actual implications of this bill. None of these guys would want to be headlines saying something like �Obama is against American Works�. No one will actually care to look at the long term implication of such a bill whereby most of the IT jobs will be outsourced.

    From tomorrow, we should all email and inform everybody that we can, including our employers. What is the direction from IV core? We are all waiting for the matching orders��.





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  • satishku_2000
    08-09 01:21 PM
    Actually; I didn't think it was courageous at all. I had to practice what I preach.

    One of the reasons they ask for tax returns, w2's is they want to assess your intentions; if tax returns, etc. , is out of line with offered wage then it can make them think that it is not believable you will be doing that job once greencard gets approved.

    Once 485 is filed; you are in a period of authorized stay. At that point; you can sit around and do nothing; switch jobs, etc.; However; to keep working you need to have authorization (ie., EAD card if you don't hold H-1b).

    I didn't prepare my personal tax returns on purpose because uscis could have assessed my intentions differently. When I asked him why he wanted to see the tax returns for 2005 and 2006; even though I have unrestricted employment and I can do nothing if I please; he responded it was to assess intention. Since he saw I was self employed; if my tax returns were out of line with the offered job I was going to take upon greencard approval then they may not believe it.

    Now; I didn't give him any financial data for 2005 and 2006. Although this is legal; if I was going to port to self employment then he could have assessed whether I was going to become a public charge or how I was living in 2005 and 2006. I had all my financial documents (ie., bank balances, brokerage account); just in case he went down this road.

    he didn't but just in case he wanted to; I was ready for it.

    UN,

    Did you face any questions about "Same or Similar" in the interview particularly for the time period when you were self employed?

    Can you throw some light on how to handle the scenarios where the proferred wage is much lower than the current wage and once someone invokes AC21 the offered wage can be much higher . I understand that this scenario can be problematic in case of "future job" GCs.

    My understanding of AC21 is this .. Dont invoke AC21 unless otherwise absolutely necessary?



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  • Ahimsa
    11-13 08:42 AM
    [B]... BILL TUCKER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Microsoft's Bill Gates this week fired the first shot in the coming fight for more cheap foreign labor. Gates warning of a shortage of high-tech workers that his company needs to be competitive...
    We can ignore Lou on his yet another one-sided propaganda.
    But I think, if Lou is fair-minded (which he is not), he should have called Bill Gates to discuss on H-1B not Kim B.

    H-1B reform is an off-topic right now for us.
    Also, IV is neither supportive of or against H-1B increase.

    US lawmakers already started discussing to reform H-1B with point-based system.
    Senate had a hearing on Sep 14, 2006:
    http://help.senate.gov/Hearings/2006_09_14/2006_09_14.html

    Lou thinks lawmakers do not know anything about refoming H-1B.

    So, we can ignore Lou for ever.





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  • mariner5555
    04-15 02:19 PM
    Agreed, but then you have no way of knowing if you would have been less happier growing up in a bigger home. For all you know, you may have been more happier.

    That is the general line of thinking everyone has including all the people who are posting on this forum. If more money does not equate to a better life, then why are all these people taking the trouble to desert their home land and live in a foreign country? If more money => better lifestyle, then it follows a home can provide a relatively better environment to a child than an apartment.

    If all Americans live in rented apartments, drive only used Japanese cars (resale value), furnished their homes with scant used furniture and were focussed on investing their money than spending it, then the American economy will go down to the level of a third world country in less than 10 years.

    This does not mean everyone has to run out and buy a home. The point as I said earlier is to see a home as a home and not as an investment.
    this maybe your view .. but I can find some faults with it.
    yes ..more money is equal to better lifestyle but a bigger house is not necessarily a better lifestyle for everyone. for many tech workers, following this line of reasoning will cause them more problems.
    I don't know about you ..but I came here to US for money and for better quality of life (I didnot come here to buy a big house !!). a big house would mean that I have less money as more money goes for property tax / maintenance etc etc
    now ..since I save money by renting ..I can afford to put my son in better dayschool, fund his college fund , take him for more freq vacations etc etc.
    now this maybe different for some people ..maybe those earning more than 125 K or with double income.
    also ..do you mean people should pay more for a house than it is worth ??

    I agree with yr last points ...that not everyone has to run ..and thats what I am saying.
    once you get GC and have a stable job and get a good offer on a house ...buy ..else wait. In other words ..as you are implying ..if you can afford a big house without making heavy sacrifices ..then go for it.
    (but many people that I know ..buy big houses ..then try to save money on air conditioning, restaurants etc).
    the other main problem with H1/ EAD is that you become immobile ..esp if you have to move for various reasons (since you have to worry about your legal status too ..).
    btw ..if all americans stayed in rental (or smaller homes ) and drove japanese fuel eff cars ..then the world would have been a better place with lower gas prices :)



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  • sriramkalyan
    12-19 02:26 PM
    Looks like time to shutdown IV site..

    I suggested long time back .. do not allow anyone to start the threads ..

    Only allow users who are active contributors to IV budget.


    Now this site is becoming like yahoo chats ...

    God help Immigration community ...

    EB3 is not moving ...EB2 dead stop ...





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  • JazzByTheBay
    06-05 01:41 AM
    It's reassuring to see one's thought process wasn't entirely illogical after all.

    Now, if you talk to real estate agents, you'll be told this is "the best time to buy".

    jazz


    here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
    this is from an article
    ------------------------------------
    Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?

    First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.

    Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.

    * Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
    * New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
    * People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.

    This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.

    I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.

    Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.





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  • h1bmajdoor
    07-07 08:59 PM
    Hi,

    and now another problem is I applied for EAD in march and have not received new ead.my old ead expired 10 days ago.and now Iam not working.



    there's a clause somewhere that if you don't get EAD in 90 days you can go to the local USCIS officer and get a temporary EAD.

    Other than that, pray to you favourite god.

    money, lawyers and god are useful to have on your side.





    nogc_noproblem
    08-07 12:47 AM
    After his day's sightseeing, an American touring Spain stopped at a local restaurant.

    While sipping his wine, he noticed a sizzling, scrumptious looking platter being served at the next table. Not only did it look good, the smell was wonderful.

    He asked the waiter, "What is that you just served?"

    The waiter replied, " Ah senor, you have excellent taste! Those are bull's testicles from the bull fight this morning. A delicacy!"

    The American, though momentarily daunted when he learned the origin of the dish said, "What the hell, I'm on vacation! Bring me an order!"

    The waiter replied, "I am so sorry senor. There is only one serving a day since there is only one bull fight each morning. If you come early tomorrow and place your order, we will be sure to serve you this delicacy!"

    The next morning the American returned and placed his order. That evening he was served the one and only special delicacy of the day. After a few bites, and inspecting the contents of his platter, he called to the waiter and said, "These are much, much smaller than the ones I saw you serve yesterday!"

    The waiter promptly replied, "Si, senor!" Sometimes the bull wins!





    nojoke
    04-15 09:26 PM
    Ok there you go, now you cannot buy a house in India and you don't want to buy one here. Neither here nor there, but then i do not play with emotions as someone had accused me, so I wish you happiness whereever you are.

    The evidence is overwhelming. The housing will go down so much that there will be hard lessons learned. No one will talk about investing in housing for a long time. I want to buy a house too. I just don't think you pay whatever the inflated price is demanded and throw away my hard earned money. You pay what is worth. Why do you insist that everyone has to participate in this ponzi scheme:confused: and keep the price inflated? Housing should be affordable and come to sane levels and I believe it will.



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